El Niño is causing issues for the anchovy fishery off South America. According to the fishing company Pesquera Camanchaca, anchovy catches during the first quarter of 2016 are down by 94% compared with last year, and furthermore the fish are of a smaller size.

El Niño is having a negative effect on fisheries in India as well, according to reports from the country's Central Marine Fisheries Research Institute (CMFRI). Fish landings in the southern state of Kerala declined by 16% in 2015, with sardine landings plunging 60% as a combined result of El Niño, overexploitation and fishing juveniles.

In the USA, the government has banned practically all sardine fishing on the west coast in an effort to protect the species. Since 2007, the sardine stocks have declined by a disturbing 90%, and now need to be left in peace to recover. It will probably take a few years before any results can be seen.

Trade

Norwegian exports of small pelagics increased significantly during the first quarter of 2016. Total exports of whole frozen mackerel went up from 48 700 tonnes during the first three months of 2015 to 69 100 tonnes during the same period in 2016 (+41.9%). Whole frozen herring exports grew by 54.1% during the same period, to 41 600 tonnes.

Nigeria was once again the largest market for Norwegian mackerel, and accounted for 11.6% of total Norwegian mackerel exports. Other important markets were Japan, Ghana and China.
In terms of herring, the largest importers of frozen Norwegian herring were Ukraine (36.3% of total exports), Egypt (26.7% of the total) and Lithuania (12.0% of the total).

Dutch exports of frozen herring increased slightly during the first quarter of 2016, from 34 000 tonnes to 35 000 tonnes (+2.9%). Shipments increased to Egypt (+14.7%) and Nigeria (+54.3%), but declined to China (-23.9%).

China has been well established as a re-processing country for a number of small pelagic species, including mackerel. In the first quarter of 2016, the country's exports of frozen mackerel continued to grow, albeit at a very much slower rate of that in 2015. In the first quarter of 2015, Chinese mackerel exports grew by almost 64%, but in 2016, growth had slowed to just 2.4%. Even so, the total amount of Chinese frozen mackerel exports was impressive at 55 000 tonnes during the quarter. The main markets were the Philippines, Egypt and Viet Nam.

German imports of small pelagics increased during the first quarter of 2016. Frozen mackerel imports went from 4 000 tonnes in the first quarter of 2015 to 5 500 tonnes in the same period in 2016 (+37.5%). The main supplier was the Faroe Islands, which accounted for no less than 64% of total German frozen mackerel imports. There was also a significant increase in German imports of frozen herring fillets during this period, from 3 900 tonnes in 2015 to 5 000 tonnes in 2016 (+28%). The main supplier was Norway, which accounted for 54% of the total.

Japanese imports of fresh and frozen herring, which have declined since 2014, increased somewhat in the first quarter of 2016. The import volume went from 3 200 tonnes to 3 700 tonnes (+15%). The major part of this came from Russia (73%).

Japan is also importing some frozen herring fillets, and during the first quarter of 2016, this trade amounted to 1 900 tonnes, of which the bulk (1 100 tonnes) came from Iceland. Imports in the first quarter were up by almost 27% compared with the same period in 2015.

Russia has been and will continue to be a vital market for small pelagics. In spite of the import ban on fish from western countries, which traditionally have been the main suppliers, Russian imports of frozen mackerel during the first quarter of 2016 increased dramatically compared with the first quarter of 2015. Total imports of frozen mackerel grew from 7 200 tonnes in 2015 to more than double that, 16 800 tonnes, in 2016. However, this growth was mainly supplied by the Faroe Islands, which is exempted from the import ban, and accounted for almost all of the imported volume (85.7%).

Canned sardines seem to be rising in popularity in the USA. US imports of this commodity increased by a healthy 28% in the first quarter of 2016 compared with the same period in 2015. Poland moved up to the top position among suppliers and shipped 2 300 tonnes, accounting for 24% of the total import volume, with Morocco, China and Ecuador following.

The report analyses the market situation over the period January-July 2016