Will Raj Thackeray join Shiv Sena to tilt Marathi manoos vote in Maharashtra?

The recent meeting between Maharashtra Navnirman Sena chief Raj Thackeray and the BJP leadership has ruffled feathers in Maharashtra politics. If the talks are fruitful, the western state would see a Thackeray joining forces with a BJP-led alliance after 2019, when Raj's estranged brother Uddhav Thackeray walked away from the National Democratic Alliance.

Last week, Raj Thackeray met BJP's Vinod Tawde in Delhi. This was followed by Raj Thackeray meeting Union Home Minister Amit Shah, which led to speculations of an alliance between the two parties ahead of the upcoming general elections and Maharashtra Assembly election later this year.

Sources told India Today TV that the meeting between Raj Thackeray and Vinod Tawde could open up multiple possibilities. Among them is Raj Thackeray merging his party with Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena and fighting the election on the party's traditional 'bow and arrow' symbol.

Eknath Shinde, whose rebellion led to the breakup of Shiv Sena, got the party name and symbol after the Election Commission's verdict. However, even as he has the support of the majority of MLAs, MPs, and councillors, the sentiment of the 'Marathi manoos' still lies with the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena faction.

MARATHA VOTES AND THE THACKERAYS

It was Balasaheb Thackeray, the founder of Shiv Sena, who galvanised the Maratha community and installed a sense of oneness in them. Since then, the Thackeray name and the 'bow and arrow' symbol of Shiv Sena have been the glue that unites the community's political will.

While Eknath Shinde caused a split in the Shiv Sena and became the Chief Minister with the help of the BJP, sources say he does not enjoy the support of the politically powerful Maratha community.

Now, if a Thackarey fights on the 'bow and arrow' symbol and calls for the unity of Marathas, it could be a smooth ride for the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance, which also includes Ajit Pawar-led Nationalist Congress party faction.

This could be a reason why Uddhav Thackeray was quick to say that the BJP was trying to steal a 'Thackeray', when Raj Thackeray was in the national capital to meet the BJP leadership.

WHAT DOES DATA SUGGEST

The Maratha community is the most dominant political bloc in Maharashtra. The state has seen 10 chief ministers from the community out of a total of 16.

Among the Marathas, the Kunbi sub-caste holds the sway. According to a CSDS National Election Survey, 39 per cent Maratha-Kunbis preferred the Shiv Sena, 28 per cent the Nationalist Congress Party, 20 per cent the BJP and 9 per cent the Congress in the Lok Sabha elections in 2019.

In 2014, when the BJP and Shiv Sena contested separately, the undivided Shiv Sena under Uddhav Thackeray got 19 per cent votes. Out of this, 8-9 per cent votes were for Hindutva, while 10-11 per cent votes were polled for the Marathi sentiment.

With both the Nationalist Congress Party and Shiv Sena split now, every vote matters and sentiments will play a key role in the upcoming elections.