Despite Kanshi Ram's provocations, SP-BSP coalition in Uttar Pradesh likely to continue
Although the alliance is under pressure owing to Kanshi Ram's provocations, the coalition of convenience in Uttar Pradesh is likely to continue because of mutual need.
Kanshi Ram is one politician who is known for never flinching from speaking his mind. But on March 5, when he joined Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav in Allahabad to address their first joint public meeting after the SP-BSP Government came to power four months ago, the BSP leader's plainspeak sent ripples of alarm that reached all the way to Lucknow - and sparked off fresh speculation about the future of the alliance.
"We will have to pull down this government if it does not mend its ways," said Kanshi Ram to an astonished audience. The embarrassment to Yadav could not have been more pronounced, since the meeting had been specifically convened to express SP-BSP solidarity. It was not the first time that the BSP had left Yadav squirming.
Only a week earlier, the intemperate remarks of a BSP minister about the freedom fighter and Congress leader, the late Govind Vallabh Pant, had left the Government feeling rather silly. Angry Congress(I) MLAs held up the passage of the motion of thanks on the Governor's address.
Volatile BSP leader Mayawati's threat to keep a fortnightly check on the functioning of the Government also irritated the SP members. All this came on top of the tension caused by the sudden spurt in caste clashes and kidnappings in western Uttar Pradesh.
It appears that in barely four months the alliance is being stretched at the seams. Some of Yadav's statements seem to add to the pessimistic outlook. "If any of the major parties decide to withdraw support, we cannot last a day more," says Yadav quite candidly.
Of the 425 seats in the Assembly, the combine's strength is just 176 (SP-108, BSP-68) and it depends on the support of the Congress(I) and the Janata Dal, besides three leftist MLAs and many of the 10 Independents to stay in power.
Yadav has the support of this motley group because of their abhorrence for the BJP. And it is this that he keeps reminding his allies about: "We have proved that we can handle the fundamentalist forces. This Government's fall will mean nothing but the BJP's return."
That's a sentiment Kanshi Ram also shares, but his style of saying it is more brutal: "We (the alliance) haven't sought anyone's support. They gave us support because they are scared of the BJP and as long as they remain that way, they will support us."
However, leaders of the Congress(I) and the other parties who support the Government are near unanimous that the threat to the Government is from within. Said one Congress(I) leader: "Our party or the Janata Dal are unlikely to precipitate matters because there is nothing for us to gain. But Kanshi Ram has got his whims and fancies."
| A nervous Yadav is already working out his future legislative arithmetic. |
So the big question in Lucknow is: will he or won't he? Kanshi Ram is regarded as a shrewd player, and while it may do his political image no harm to show that he is willing to bring down the Government if it lets down his supporters, he is unlikely to give up power easily. Having nurtured the BSP from scratch into the force that it is now, Kanshi Ram's ultimate aim is a greater presence at the Centre.
And to reach the Centre, he knows he needs to expand outside his current base in Uttar Pradesh. He is already spending time in states like Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Gujarat where elections are slated later this year and early next year.
Kanshi Ram also realises that his constituency of backwards, Harijans and Muslims responds to him only because of his success in Uttar Pradesh. Thus, if the Uttar Pradesh Government is threatened, the carefully built up platform might crumble, leaving both Kanshi Ram and Yadav to start anew.
There is another factor which indicates that for all his muscle flexing, Kanshi Ram will not push Yadav to the brink. With elections due in four states later this year, he wants to make the BSP's presence felt in at least a couple of them. As this calls for a lot of resources, having control of a major state government like Uttar Pradesh can be a great advantage.
Insiders in the SP, therefore, believe that Kanshi Ram's recent utterances are only meant to keep the pressure on Yadav and extract as many concessions from him as possible. What's more, the BSP members of the Cabinet are hardly of ministerial calibre.
Most of them appear to be administrative novices. Even the chief minister has little time for them, BSP ministers seeking an appointment with Yadav are told by his staff to take their problems to Kanshi Ram, who will sort them out with "sahib" later.
Considering the tenuous nature of the alliance, Yadav is already working out his future legislative arithmetic. Recently, he sprang a surprise when he induced CPI veteran Mitrasen Yadav to join the SP along with a couple of communist Vidhan Parishad members.
He has also been quietly angling for more defections. A couple of SP ministers have been working overtime to create a "Mulayam fan club" within the BSP fold.
Some recent administrative decisions have already sent the right signals. The withdrawal of cases against Phoolan Devi was one such, designed to win over the Mallahs (OBCs) while the withdrawal of the anti-cheating law is a sop to students.
Similarly, the repeal of the Gangster Act is meant to appease those who have always provided Yadav with the muscle power required in Uttar Pradesh's rough and ready politics. Yadav defends these actions vehemently. "The law already has provisions to deal with such situations. Why provide for extra-judicial measures which are likely to be misused?" he asks.
For the moment, however, the SP-BSP alliance is far from breaking up. Despite the frequent friction, the partnership continues for the simple reason that they need each other. And they will continue to stick together until different political compulsions force them asunder.